The US Government has long held an outward position of neutrality vis-à-vis the strength of the US Dollar. Although ex-President Trump vocally moaned about other nations undervaluing their currencies all administrations maintain a system of pinning certain nations as ‘currency manipulators’ from time to time. There is- conversely, also the recognition that the US has to- because of its central role in world trade, in financial transactions and as a measure of financial stability, maintain a certain value. Without that sense of value countries would stop keeping a large portion of their reserves in US Dollars and confidence in internationalism would wane. It is both a prestige and a burden. And at every point in time the US must maintain that balance between mercantilism and financial necessity- between weakness and strength.
People underestimate the extent of the dollar’s reach in all facets of international relations and the power this gives the Americans. China and Russia have both realised the extent of the truth of this over the years and they keep coming up against this truth daily. China has a better chance to do something about this but it will require a tremendous amount of patience and a complete mindset change in the way they view international relations. Russia has just been humbled in the past few days.
With pressure from the Biden administration being applied on human right’s abuses in Russia (especially with regard to the imprisoning and alleged torture of the dissident Navalny) and the sanctions in place after the Russian annexation of the Crimea, Putin announced that the Russian Oil Fund would do away with its holding of dollars and replace them with the Yuan, Gold and Euros. This was meant to be a strategic shot across the bow for the US (who have ensured that past attempts by Iraq and Libya ended rather badly for them). But Russia were forced to make a tactical withdrawal when it amended that to the fact that this would just be an adjustment in holding composition with its own central bank- that is, no selling off of dollars in the market. What they effectively did, was just immunise themselves against punitive American sanctions on the Russian oil fund.
This is just a small but telling example of the influence of the Dollar that ties together military adversaries- even if reluctantly. The Americans know this and use it sparingly with the strong and indiscriminately with the weak. With over 60% of all foreign exchange reserves denominated in Dollar assets and over 88% of global foreign exchange transactions the same it is an inescapable reality that the US can exert pressure through access to its currency. Putin has had to acknowledge that it is impossible to function in the commercial world without it. It was- after all, the Federal Reserve that saved the globe from financial implosion when Covid struck- not the Russians or Chinese. China’s long-term plan to internationalise the Yuan would be more likely to succeed if they didn’t have the tendency to shoot themselves in the foot with their trigger-happy mannerisms. Their goals are far more transparently one-sided in favourability of outcomes- benefitting the Chinese mainly; as their infrastructure deals financed by Chinese loans like in the Belt and Road initiative, for example, shows. They are also more sensitive to criticism of their treatment of Uighurs or their aggressive actions in Hong Kong, or the South China Sea and so on and lash out at critics. All this makes it hard for countries to build trust with them given their objectives, command structures are opaque and information is not freely available. In international terms, one may choose to do business with them in accordance with international enforceable regulations but minimising reliance on their word is advised. There is little accountability when deals go sour.
The problem for the Americans is that they need to regain competitiveness in manufacturing: a realisation that many countries have come to after the initial fears that Covid has caused. The best way to do this would be to allow the dollar to devalue a bit but not too much; and not allow it to happen in an obvious way else that would disrupt their role as the central bankers to the world.
They are already on the way to devaluing their currency by way of a bloated Federal Reserve balance sheet (quantitative easing) which has just crossed USD 8 trillion in size, a huge and ballooning debt pile thanks to budget deficits, a record trade deficit and ultra-low interest rates. All this has driven leveraged borrowers to invest in higher yielding currencies thus driving their appreciation.
There may be another reason that would force the hand of America to drive down the value of their currency. Domestic wage pressures are building up with a nationwide move (resisted by the Republicans) to push up the minimum wage from $7.25 an hour towards (over a period of a few years) to $15 an hour. This, whilst boosting domestic demand and fuelling inflation, would make the US a less attractive place to manufacture. You cannot move many low-end services overseas (waiters, delivery services, lifeguards, hairstylists, etc) but the pricing out of American workers from industries competing with overseas labour might only be really achievable if the value of the dollar versus other countries fell appreciably to offset the overall rise in costs. This doesn’t imply a halving of dollar value since labour costs only makes up a small component of many industries overall costs but it will certainly be a source of downward pressure. This is not a mainstream school of thought as yet since this is based on a number of what ifs.
There has been- as noted in earlier articles, a move away from the dollar bloc of countries as other currencies gain traction. As interregional trade ties Asia together the need for the US Dollar as a via media or as an important component in facilitating trade will diminish. Here, the Yuan will dominate and demand for the dollar will die out slowly as China overtakes the US in size. The Euro has been spreading its influence through Europe and the francophone speaking nations and its centre of gravity is drifting eastward. Its influence may spread into the middle east if Iran gravitates towards Europe for support. Turkey may feel the need to bind itself more towards the Euro as the Lire gets buffeted.
The US Dollar is really at a crossroad. It has been the symbol of economic virility and freedom, the spiritual home of capitalism, free markets and free trade. The Trump Presidency took a sledgehammer to all these comfortable notions and shook everyone’s confidence on the ability/ stability of the United States of America. This loss of confidence has drifted into the world’s attitude towards the currency. People will continue to use it as it is freely available and costs next to nothing to get hold of. Capital is politically agnostic to a point. But where it goes from here and what it stands for depends on the will and the priorities of this new administration. The US does not want to cede political and economic domination of the world and- more than its military might, the dollar plays a big role in furthering its interests. They need to balance these mercantilist and political interests judiciously- even as they are at odds with each other.